F3 · RISK
Geopolitics
War, chokepoints, and the diplomatic calendar that actually moves oil, rates, and semis. Severity is a desk judgment, not a government alert.
Persian Gulf
criticalOPEN / DISRUPTED
Strait of Hormuz — tanker risk still the oil tape
A second tanker strike this week kept WTI above $100 even as Friday's session faded from the highs. China, at Riyadh's request, asked Tehran to restrain Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. That eased the Saudi-supply scare; it did not reopen the strait. Diesel and ULSD remain the inflation vector the Fed actually cares about.
Oil is the inflation impulse; Hormuz is the supply impulse. They are the same trade until a verified transit window exists. Watch Brent-WTI, crack spreads, and tanker AIS — not the peace headline.
Middle East
highKINETIC + TALKS
US–Iran conflict — diplomacy window vs. kinetic residual
The June MOU that briefly reopened Hormuz did not hold as a clean ceasefire. Residual strikes, proxy activity in Lebanon, and insurance premia on Gulf cargoes are still in the price. Prediction markets had priced a September framework; that bet is bleeding as midterms approach and neither capital can claim a tidy win.
Equities recovered the initial war drawdown inside a quarter. That is history, not a hedge. A second shock into $110+ crude re-opens the 2022 inflation playbook the new Fed chair just endorsed.
Red Sea / Saudi
highDE-ESCALATION ATTEMPT
Houthi-Saudi infrastructure — China steps in as messenger
Beijing asked Tehran to limit Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure after Riyadh requested the intervention. Additional Saudi cargoes moving via Oman and a faster East-West pipeline restore took the most extreme supply-loss scenarios off the board Friday. The Red Sea remains a war-risk insurance market.
This is why crude reversed off the highs Friday. It is not a green light for energy shorts — it is a ceiling on the left-tail of Saudi barrels, not Hormuz barrels.
US–China
watchSCHEDULED 24 SEP
Xi in Washington — Thursday bilateral, semis in the room
President Xi's anticipated visit includes a Thursday meeting with President Trump. The docket is AI compute, semiconductor export controls, and a trade architecture still living in the shadow of 2025 tariff shocks. Markets will fade the handshake and trade the communiqué.
NVDA/TSM/AVGO are the high-beta read-through. A modest easing of tool restrictions is a one-day squeeze; a tightening is a multiple event. Do not position the index on the photo-op.
United States
watchCALENDAR RISK
Midterm path — three months of a historically ugly tape
The three months into US midterms are a historically noisy window. Layered on war, $100 oil, and a hiking Fed, the political tape is not background. Energy prices and AI-regulation rhetoric are both campaign instruments.
This is a volatility calendar, not a directional one. Keep event premium in November VIX/SPX structures; do not let it dictate Monday's book.
Eastern Europe
containedONGOING
Ukraine — frozen front, live energy residual
The European gas complex remains sensitive to any disruption narrative even as the Iran war has stolen the oil headline. TTF jumped Friday on residual supply anxiety. This is a second-order inflation input, not the primary one.
EU gas is a European industrial-margin story more than an S&P story — unless it couples with Hormuz.