XOM

Strait of Hormuz — tanker risk still the oil tape

Oil is the inflation impulse; Hormuz is the supply impulse. They are the same trade until a verified transit window exists. Watch Brent-WTI, crack spreads, and tanker AIS — not the peace headline.

Houthi-Saudi infrastructure — China steps in as messenger

This is why crude reversed off the highs Friday. It is not a green light for energy shorts — it is a ceiling on the left-tail of Saudi barrels, not Hormuz barrels.