Relief is a price, not a policy

The day after the hike. Oil off the highs, yields off the highs, tech bid. Treat it as a squeeze until proven otherwise.

ISSUED

Wed 16 Sep 20:00 ET

FEDTECHOIL

POST-FOMC

Warsh hiked. The market is now arguing the path

Twenty-five basis points was consensus. The residual is October. Less forward guidance means speakers and data do the work the dots used to do. Semiconductors led the rebound Thursday’s cash session is set up to extend — AVGO remains the wounded one after the margin outlook; NVDA and TSM are the cleanest beta.

ENERGY

Saudi-channel headlines vs. Hormuz barrels

Do not flatten those. A pipeline restore is not a strait. Crude can fall $2 and still be an inflation problem at $100.

DESK

Monday watch

October hike odds
Brent $104
NDX vs. SPX

MARKS

Levels

SPX7,551.81
US10Y~4.93–5.00

Marks are Friday cash / weekend futures. Not a live feed.

Night Desk issues a page every weeknight at 20:00 ET for the next cash session. Weekend release is Sunday 16:20 ET covering Monday. Issue archive.